Blockbuster Video Company
Introduction
Scenario-type planning is an approach
used to evaluate various scenarios to aid in predicting and planning the
future. It aids in the dynamic response to future unknown events. Scenario-type
planning can also be described as the process of thinking and planning for
future events by developing a resilient, effective and responsive solution. It
is used to plan for future events such as changes in economic conditions,
social attitudes, and political environments. The long-term demands and needs
and an external view of what can and cannot be controlled are critical in
scenario-type planning. Scenario-type planning is useful in projecting and
promoting innovation activities. The scenario-type planning process is more
beneficial when an innovation is very disruptive to an organization’s
activities and processes. This approach provides possibilities for creating
multiple alternatives to reasonable future scenarios and makes it possible to analyze
them in-depth. It also considers the driving forces and alternatives that may
influence the dynamics of future scenarios.
Scenario-type
planning
Blockbuster Video is an example of a
company that failed to use scenario-type planning and adjust to new
technologies by relying only on standard forecasting techniques. In 1999,
Blockbuster was among the earliest video chains renting videos on DVD (Digital
Versatile Disc). In the same year, the
company predicted that it would have 3,800 video stores selling 200 DVD titles in
the US and about 1,000 video stores internationally. By 2004, it had grown
exponentially and more than 9,000 stores worldwide. However, in 2010, Blockbuster
filed for bankruptcy. Currently, Blockbuster has only one store in the US. What
could have happened to such a successful company?
Blockbuster had several changes in
its leadership that had significant consequences on its eventual outcome (Almeida,
2011). Netflix, a streaming service used widely today, approached Blockbuster
for a merger. The terms were Blockbuster would buy Netflix for 50 million and
allow Netflix to run the online services. Blockbuster rejected the offer and wasn’t
interested in online services. It also underestimated Netflix’s online services
and didn’t consider it as a threat to its market.. When Netflix and Redbox
dominated the market and threatened Blockbuster’s position in the market, the
company decided to make changes and invest in online services. After a few
months, the company experienced a change in leadership and reverted to the
‘old’ business model, which eventually led to its demise.
Blockbuster failed due to its inability to
adapt to social and technological change (Davis & Higgins, 2013). The market
was no longer interested in renting DVDs and cassette videos. People were
enjoying the streaming services Netflix provided. Blockbuster believed its
business model was solid, and people would still come physically to rent DVDs. It
also thought that people would not be interested in the subscription program.
Late fees contributed a significant amount to Blockbuster’s revenue (Edgar, 2010). Netflix did not
charge late fees since they offered a subscription service where customers could
keep their movies for free. Blockbuster’s attempt to remove late fees to adapt
and catch up with Netflix had devastating consequences since it began losing
money rapidly. The company’s revenue relied on its outdated business model and could
not adapt to social and technological change. It could not afford to change its
business model since it would have to be rebuilt from the ground up.
Social and technological forces influenced
Blockbuster’s decision to neglect scenario-type planning. It is difficult to
predict social trends because they are highly unstable. The coronavirus pandemic,
for example, had significant consequences for businesses since it was difficult
to prepare for such a scenario. Lockdown restrictions led to a change in social
trends since people had to use streaming services to access and watch movies.
Many companies were not ready for such a quick social change and had to
increase their bandwidths accordingly. Similarly, Blockbuster was not prepared
for the shift in preference. The company earned large amounts of money from
penalizing its customers for late fees. Customers were growing tired of these
charges. Blockbuster thought customers loved walking into stores to pick up
movies and snacks. However, customers preferred watching movies and eating
snacks at their homes. Blockbuster’s failure to predict and prepare for social
change led to many customers switching to alternative companies that met their
needs.
Technological forces also contributed to
Blockbuster’s demise. As a retailer, Blockbuster did not have the resources or capabilities
to change its structure and become an online company. The company had already
created an online presence through its website but it was not used for renting
DVDs or selling merchandise. Blockbuster was a traditional brick-and-mortar
business specializing in selling and renting DVDs in its physical stores (Gershon,
2013). When other online companies such as Netflix offered to provide movies
online, they were unwilling to try the new technology. Blockbuster also failed
to provide video-on-demand services like their competitors. It also decided
against using internet-based subscription services. The failure to embrace new
technology was a significant strategic failure that eventually led to their
demise.
I will use a six-step process in
scenario-type planning to prepare for future efforts. The process enables
planners to handle social, economic, and technological changes and their
impacts. The steps are:
·
Make predictions of future scenarios
through brainstorming and identify their driving forces.
·
Analyze the driving forces and
consequences of the predictions.
·
Arrange the driving forces based on their
importance and uncertainty.
·
Create a scenario matrix based on their
importance and uncertainty. Identify the available options and the requirements
to prepare for the scenarios.
·
Analyze the scenarios and their
implications.
·
Update policies and strategies
accordingly.
Conclusion
Industries and organizations should
embrace scenario-type planning in planning and preparing for future
innovations. Scenario-type planning is useful in evaluating new technologies in
different scenarios to better plan for the future. It can be used to manage and mitigate the
negative impacts of change. Blockbuster and the newspaper industry neglected
using proper scenario-type planning and failed to adapt to change to continue
being competitive. Companies can remain relevant by maintaining a positive
climate that facilitates creativity, innovation, and agility. Change is
prevalent in the modern world, and it is important to be well prepared.
Scenario-type planning is thus an effective way of preparing for future unknown
events. Companies should also embrace new ideas and capitalize on them to
maintain their competitive advantage.
References
Almeida, J. (2011). Blockbuster. The Fall of a Giant.
https://repositorio.ucp.pt/bitstream/10400.14/8236/3/Blockbuster%20Inc..pdf
Davis, T., & Higgins, J. (2013). A
Blockbuster Failure: How an Outdated Business Model Destroyed a Giant.
https://ir.law.utk.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=utk_studlawbankruptcy
Edgar, B. (2010). Scenario Planning as a Tool
to Promote Innovation in Regional Development Context.
Gershon, R. A. (2013). Innovation Failure: A
Case Study Analysis of Eastman Kodak and Blockbuster Inc. In Media management and economics research in a transmedia environment (pp. 62-84). Routledge.
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