Blockbuster Video Company

Introduction

Scenario-type planning is an approach used to evaluate various scenarios to aid in predicting and planning the future. It aids in the dynamic response to future unknown events. Scenario-type planning can also be described as the process of thinking and planning for future events by developing a resilient, effective and responsive solution. It is used to plan for future events such as changes in economic conditions, social attitudes, and political environments. The long-term demands and needs and an external view of what can and cannot be controlled are critical in scenario-type planning. Scenario-type planning is useful in projecting and promoting innovation activities. The scenario-type planning process is more beneficial when an innovation is very disruptive to an organization’s activities and processes. This approach provides possibilities for creating multiple alternatives to reasonable future scenarios and makes it possible to analyze them in-depth. It also considers the driving forces and alternatives that may influence the dynamics of future scenarios.

Scenario-type planning

Blockbuster Video is an example of a company that failed to use scenario-type planning and adjust to new technologies by relying only on standard forecasting techniques. In 1999, Blockbuster was among the earliest video chains renting videos on DVD (Digital Versatile Disc).  In the same year, the company predicted that it would have 3,800 video stores selling 200 DVD titles in the US and about 1,000 video stores internationally. By 2004, it had grown exponentially and more than 9,000 stores worldwide. However, in 2010, Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy. Currently, Blockbuster has only one store in the US. What could have happened to such a successful company?

Blockbuster had several changes in its leadership that had significant consequences on its eventual outcome (Almeida, 2011). Netflix, a streaming service used widely today, approached Blockbuster for a merger. The terms were Blockbuster would buy Netflix for 50 million and allow Netflix to run the online services. Blockbuster rejected the offer and wasn’t interested in online services. It also underestimated Netflix’s online services and didn’t consider it as a threat to its market.. When Netflix and Redbox dominated the market and threatened Blockbuster’s position in the market, the company decided to make changes and invest in online services. After a few months, the company experienced a change in leadership and reverted to the ‘old’ business model, which eventually led to its demise.

Blockbuster failed due to its inability to adapt to social and technological change (Davis & Higgins, 2013). The market was no longer interested in renting DVDs and cassette videos. People were enjoying the streaming services Netflix provided. Blockbuster believed its business model was solid, and people would still come physically to rent DVDs. It also thought that people would not be interested in the subscription program. Late fees contributed a significant amount to Blockbuster’s revenue (Edgar, 2010). Netflix did not charge late fees since they offered a subscription service where customers could keep their movies for free. Blockbuster’s attempt to remove late fees to adapt and catch up with Netflix had devastating consequences since it began losing money rapidly. The company’s revenue relied on its outdated business model and could not adapt to social and technological change. It could not afford to change its business model since it would have to be rebuilt from the ground up.  

Social and technological forces influenced Blockbuster’s decision to neglect scenario-type planning. It is difficult to predict social trends because they are highly unstable. The coronavirus pandemic, for example, had significant consequences for businesses since it was difficult to prepare for such a scenario. Lockdown restrictions led to a change in social trends since people had to use streaming services to access and watch movies. Many companies were not ready for such a quick social change and had to increase their bandwidths accordingly. Similarly, Blockbuster was not prepared for the shift in preference. The company earned large amounts of money from penalizing its customers for late fees. Customers were growing tired of these charges. Blockbuster thought customers loved walking into stores to pick up movies and snacks. However, customers preferred watching movies and eating snacks at their homes. Blockbuster’s failure to predict and prepare for social change led to many customers switching to alternative companies that met their needs.

Technological forces also contributed to Blockbuster’s demise. As a retailer, Blockbuster did not have the resources or capabilities to change its structure and become an online company. The company had already created an online presence through its website but it was not used for renting DVDs or selling merchandise. Blockbuster was a traditional brick-and-mortar business specializing in selling and renting DVDs in its physical stores (Gershon, 2013). When other online companies such as Netflix offered to provide movies online, they were unwilling to try the new technology. Blockbuster also failed to provide video-on-demand services like their competitors. It also decided against using internet-based subscription services. The failure to embrace new technology was a significant strategic failure that eventually led to their demise.

I will use a six-step process in scenario-type planning to prepare for future efforts. The process enables planners to handle social, economic, and technological changes and their impacts. The steps are:

·         Make predictions of future scenarios through brainstorming and identify their driving forces.

·         Analyze the driving forces and consequences of the predictions.

·         Arrange the driving forces based on their importance and uncertainty.

·         Create a scenario matrix based on their importance and uncertainty. Identify the available options and the requirements to prepare for the scenarios.

·         Analyze the scenarios and their implications.

·         Update policies and strategies accordingly.

Conclusion

Industries and organizations should embrace scenario-type planning in planning and preparing for future innovations. Scenario-type planning is useful in evaluating new technologies in different scenarios to better plan for the future.  It can be used to manage and mitigate the negative impacts of change. Blockbuster and the newspaper industry neglected using proper scenario-type planning and failed to adapt to change to continue being competitive. Companies can remain relevant by maintaining a positive climate that facilitates creativity, innovation, and agility. Change is prevalent in the modern world, and it is important to be well prepared. Scenario-type planning is thus an effective way of preparing for future unknown events. Companies should also embrace new ideas and capitalize on them to maintain their competitive advantage. 

 

References

Almeida, J. (2011). Blockbuster. The Fall of a Giant.

https://repositorio.ucp.pt/bitstream/10400.14/8236/3/Blockbuster%20Inc..pdf

Davis, T., & Higgins, J. (2013). A Blockbuster Failure: How an Outdated Business Model Destroyed a Giant.

https://ir.law.utk.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=utk_studlawbankruptcy

Edgar, B. (2010). Scenario Planning as a Tool to Promote Innovation in Regional Development Context.

Gershon, R. A. (2013). Innovation Failure: A Case Study Analysis of Eastman Kodak and Blockbuster Inc. In Media management and economics research in a transmedia environment (pp. 62-84). Routledge.

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9780203538326-13/innovation-failure-case-study-analysis-eastman-kodak-blockbuster-inc-richard-gershon

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